Could Bloomberg Create a New Landscape in Cook County Elections?

Last week, a spokesman for Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced the billionaire would be doing “anything it takes” to support the re-election bids of Cook County Commissioners who vote to keep the sweetened beverage tax. Bloomberg’s commitment to these races raises questions about the amount of money that could potentially fill these elections in 2018.

Bloomberg has already spent over $5 million on ads supporting the “soda tax,” between his campaign to get the measure passed by the Cook County Board in 2016, and his continued support of the tax in 2017 amidst legal challenges to it. As ICPR covered in July, Bloomberg has demonstrated his willingness to spend millions of dollars in support of similar laws, such as in San Francisco and Oakland, where he spent $20 million to get similar laws enacted.

How Much Money Would It Take?
Each member of the Cook County Board, including its 17 commissioners and one president, is elected every four years on the same Primary/General Election cycle as the governor. However, unlike the hotly contested race for governor, many of the 2014 Cook County Board races were uncontested.

Of the 18 seats on the County Board, including 17 commissioners and the president, only nine faced a Primary or General Election opponent in 2014. In those nine contested seats, only three had a General Election challenger, while the other six had Primary opponents. The six commissioners with Primary challengers spent an average of about $143,900 on the Primary Election, and the three commissioners with General Election challengers spent an average of $84,300 on their races.

In terms of both campaign fundraising and spending, County Board President Toni Preckwinkle had the most expensive race. Despite being unopposed in both of her races, Preckwinkle spent $2.3 million over the entire election cycle. For comparison, Preckwinkle’s spending was more than the combined $2.2 million the other 17 commissioners spent on their races.

The bulk of the county board president’s spending went to advertising, transfers to other committees, and political consulting. Additionally, over $250k in Preckwinkle’s expenditures were un-itemized, meaning her committee did not report who they paid that money to.

These trends highlight where money will likely be raised and spent in 2018. While individual Commissioner’s races will likely heat up, especially for anyone who votes to retain the soda tax, the main race to watch is the President’s race. Commissioner Richard Boykin stated in August that he is considering running against Preckwinkle for Cook County Board President. Regardless of whether Boykin is the one challenging Preckwinkle, the fierce opposition to Preckwinkle’s soda tax, and the fact that Preckwinkle spent $2.3 million on an unopposed race, indicates the 2018 race could be expensive.

Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle (left) faces a potential 2018 challenge from Commissioner Richard Boykin (right) over her support for the Sweetened Beverage Tax

Potential Funding Streams for Cook County Races
In response to questions about the former mayor’s plans for Cook County races, a Bloomberg spokesperson told ICPR that “Mr. Bloomberg is going to ensure the commissioners have the support they need” to combat attacks made “by big soda companies headquartered in Atlanta and Westchester County.”

As a single potential source of hundreds of thousands of dollars, state law limits the amount of money Bloomberg can directly contribute to a candidate, at least initially. An individual can only contribute $5,600 to a candidate for any given race while contribution limits are in place. However, those limits can be lifted by self-funding candidates or independent expenditure committees.

There are two ways to remove contribution limits in a Primary or General Election race, allowing candidates to receive unlimited contributions. Limits are removed if:

• A candidate or immediate family member contributes or loans over $100,000 to the candidate’s campaign
• Individuals or Independent Expenditure Committees (aka super PACs) make more than $100,000 in independent expenditures supporting or opposing a candidate. This money is usually spent on TV ads or mailers.

This latter option illustrates how Bloomberg could inject hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars into the Cook County Board races. Based on his spending thus far, the billionaire seems ready to spend $100,000 or more on each of the Cook County races. Specifically, he could support Board President Toni Preckwinkle in what is sure to be an expensive race.

If he commits to that plan, Bloomberg could start by spending $100,000 in ads and mailers supporting Preckwinkle’s re-election. At that point, contribution limits would be lifted, allowing unlimited contributions to Preckwinkle and her opponents from Bloomberg and any other group that wants to influence the race. Bloomberg could also continue spending unlimited amounts on his own ads, without needing to donate directly to Preckwinkle. Either way, this could drive up the cost of the election from its previous price tag of $2.3 million.

From the other side, political commentators agree that the anti-tax coaltion, led by the American Beverage Association and Illinois Retail Merchants’ Association, does not need to spend nearly as much as pro-taxers, led by Bloomberg.

The Chicago Tribune Editorial Board wrote against the tax on Friday, saying “opponents don’t need to spend a dime for advertising” because consumers are constantly reminded of the tax at the cash register. And for 86% of consumers, that reminder hurts pro-tax commissioners, according to a poll published on September 20 by a branch of the Illinois Retail Merchants Association.

Additionally, a report published by Crain’s on Friday claims none other than Illinois Democratic Party Chair (and Speaker of the House) Michael Madigan wants the Sweetened Beverage Tax repealed in October. With the powerful leader of the Illinois Democratic Party on their side, the beverage lobby has a powerful ally in pushing for the soda tax repeal, as well as for putting a target on Toni Preckwinkle and any pro-tax commissioner if Preckwinkle manages to win the repeal vote.

Despite the strong political forces solidifying in favor of the soda tax repeal, Coca-Cola, Pepsico, and Dr. Pepper are taking no chances, contributing to Citizens for a More Affordable Cook County, a PAC formed to support pro-repeal commissioners. All told, the group has received $88,800 from the companies, a pittance compared to the hundreds of thousands or millions Bloomberg could spend.

What To Look for in 2018
March 2018 will be filled with key Primary races for voters across Cook County, as well as the rest of Illinois. The majority of contested 2014 Cook County Board seats were challenged in the Primary Election, and with the intense public interest on the sweetened beverage tax, more seats will likely be challenged in 2018.

If 2018 is anything like 2014, Primary races will be more expensive than General Election races for Cook County Commissioner. In 2014, commissioners with Primary challengers spent nearly twice as much as commissioners with General Election challengers. If Democrats Richard Boykin and Toni Preckwinkle face off for Board President, Michael Bloomberg’s money could play a major role.

Not only will County Commissioners be on the ballot, but many statewide races are sure to be to be hotly contested in March as well. For Democrats, the gubernatorial campaign represents an already tumultuous race, and Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s announcement to not run for re-election promises more Primary drama in March.

On the Republican side, the GOP has not yet put up candidates for Secretary of State, Comptroller, or Treasurer. Any of these could become key races for the party in the General Election.

Despite the number of highly significant races on the ballot in 2018, it should be noted that, on average, only about 20% of registered voters typically vote in Primary Elections on non-presidential election years. With so many elections being decided in the primaries, March 20, 2018 will be crucial day for Illinois voters to get out and vote.