Historic Runoff Creates Unique Opportunity for Analysis

With Chicago’s first mayoral runoff election less than one month away, both remaining candidates have re-calibrated their strategies to reach new voters and encourage participation on election day. Chicago Tribune reporter Bill Ruthhart noted these efforts in a March 6th article, writing, “Both campaigns are poring over Chicago Board of Election Commissioners data telling them who voted on February 24th.” After cross-checking this data with voter outreach completed prior to the election, campaigns are now directing their efforts to increasing turnout in the upcoming runoff, where engagement can typically decline.

Andrew Sharp, Manager of the Garcia campaign, explains this strategy, a method he calls “microtargeting.”  He continues, “We look for patterns based on where people live,…their voting history, and how frequently they’ve voted.” Sharp continues, “If someone doesn’t tend to vote as often, they might get four phone calls instead of two.” Both campaigns hope to bring out more than just the 33.5 percent of voters who showed up at the polls in February.

According to Ruthhart’s article, a total of about 114,600 fewer ballots were cast in this election than four years ago. Why was voter turnout so low on February 24th? Will this number increase in the runoff election on April 7th? What were the factors that lead to this historic situation, and how will they affect its ultimate outcome? 

These are the types of questions we look forward to discussing at our April 9th “Chicago Politics in Transition” forum. Our panelists are ready to answer your questions on how and why we got here, what it means, and how it may affect voters across the state of Illinois. We hope you will join us for this unique opportunity to analyze the current state of our political process.

Click here to view the invitation and purchase your tickets today.